gaz
09-17 02:34 PM
unregistered sex offenders and illegals
Another amendment from the King.....
Another amendment from the King.....
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msngroups
05-25 03:28 PM
At the end of day, what matters is PEACEFULNESS. Once the feeling comes that PEACEFULNESS is no more here, pack up !!!!!!
puddonhead
07-31 12:39 PM
For all the non-financial enginners who are trying to make sense of financial jargons (like myself - no financial enginnering degree for me but I have worked as a quant for some time in between):
Any time you are trading something - you are betting on the direction of "something". Smisachu - with his statistical arbitrage background - would probably like to vehemently disagree at this point. But please hear me out first.
If you are buying a stock - you are betting that the price of the stock will increase. If you are not sure whether prices will increase or decrease - but still sense some bubble forming, then you know that at the top of the bubble and duing the bust phase - the volatility goes through the roof. Maybe it is time for some option trading to trade on the volatility. So you are now trading on the volatility instead of the price.
If you become even more of a pro option trader - and you think that the market always undervalues out of money options (because human brain is not capable of anticipating the "black swan" events) - then you will buy out of the money options for pennies and will hope that you "poo like a chicken and eat like an elephant". The directional bet you are taking in this case is again on the vol increasing over a longer period of time.
If you are into statistical arbitrage - you have your own gold standard, usually some mathematical model, of how a specific market should be priced. If the market price differs from this - then you enter into a trade to make money when eventually this anomaly reverses.
Volatility is the second order "statistical moment" of the price. These, and other derived quantities (are usually termed as greeks in the trading perlance) - but if you are good in statistics - then you could think of all of them as statistical moments and formulate your whole mathematical model on that. There are ways you can formulate strateties to trade even higher order derivatives.
The basic fact that you are betting on the direction of "something" is often lost on even some professional traders - leading to some wonderful illusions of risk free return (like perpetual motion machine).
To be fair - there are some trading strategies which appear very simple and intuitively appealing - yet produce extremely complex mathematical results when you try to find out exactly which "something" you are taking a directional bet on.
So if you want to trade - I think a good idea is to first find out what is this "something" that you will like to bet on. Alternatively, if you have any strategy - please first understand what kind of direction bet you are taking - and the risks associated with it.
Any thoughts?
P.S.: "Directional bet" is a dirty work in trading perlance. I used it intentionally for effect.
Any time you are trading something - you are betting on the direction of "something". Smisachu - with his statistical arbitrage background - would probably like to vehemently disagree at this point. But please hear me out first.
If you are buying a stock - you are betting that the price of the stock will increase. If you are not sure whether prices will increase or decrease - but still sense some bubble forming, then you know that at the top of the bubble and duing the bust phase - the volatility goes through the roof. Maybe it is time for some option trading to trade on the volatility. So you are now trading on the volatility instead of the price.
If you become even more of a pro option trader - and you think that the market always undervalues out of money options (because human brain is not capable of anticipating the "black swan" events) - then you will buy out of the money options for pennies and will hope that you "poo like a chicken and eat like an elephant". The directional bet you are taking in this case is again on the vol increasing over a longer period of time.
If you are into statistical arbitrage - you have your own gold standard, usually some mathematical model, of how a specific market should be priced. If the market price differs from this - then you enter into a trade to make money when eventually this anomaly reverses.
Volatility is the second order "statistical moment" of the price. These, and other derived quantities (are usually termed as greeks in the trading perlance) - but if you are good in statistics - then you could think of all of them as statistical moments and formulate your whole mathematical model on that. There are ways you can formulate strateties to trade even higher order derivatives.
The basic fact that you are betting on the direction of "something" is often lost on even some professional traders - leading to some wonderful illusions of risk free return (like perpetual motion machine).
To be fair - there are some trading strategies which appear very simple and intuitively appealing - yet produce extremely complex mathematical results when you try to find out exactly which "something" you are taking a directional bet on.
So if you want to trade - I think a good idea is to first find out what is this "something" that you will like to bet on. Alternatively, if you have any strategy - please first understand what kind of direction bet you are taking - and the risks associated with it.
Any thoughts?
P.S.: "Directional bet" is a dirty work in trading perlance. I used it intentionally for effect.
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obviously
06-14 11:47 AM
Folks!
Let us use this weekend to get on the phone and spend an average of 1 min. 20 seconds per Representative leaving voice mail messages per this script. It is absolutely easy. There can be no reason we cannot do it.
For each Immigrant In The Queue, remember, you can call, so can your wife, so can each of your kids. Get a friend to call. Get his wife, or her husband to call. 57 is pathetically low. If each of us that have called gets ONE MORE PERSON to spend a grand total of 10 Minutes leaving voicemails, we will have hit the 100 mark.
Guys, gals and other beings... this is not scary stuff. You will be 'talking' to voicemail. Time much better spent than debating the LA Lakers-Celtics game, wondering about what to eat for lunch, or debating the latest controversy thats caught your fancy.
Seriously, let the HIGH SKILLS portion of our profile come to play ... pick up the phone and call ... call now !!!!
Peace!
Let us use this weekend to get on the phone and spend an average of 1 min. 20 seconds per Representative leaving voice mail messages per this script. It is absolutely easy. There can be no reason we cannot do it.
For each Immigrant In The Queue, remember, you can call, so can your wife, so can each of your kids. Get a friend to call. Get his wife, or her husband to call. 57 is pathetically low. If each of us that have called gets ONE MORE PERSON to spend a grand total of 10 Minutes leaving voicemails, we will have hit the 100 mark.
Guys, gals and other beings... this is not scary stuff. You will be 'talking' to voicemail. Time much better spent than debating the LA Lakers-Celtics game, wondering about what to eat for lunch, or debating the latest controversy thats caught your fancy.
Seriously, let the HIGH SKILLS portion of our profile come to play ... pick up the phone and call ... call now !!!!
Peace!
more...
indianindian2006
03-13 01:16 PM
Does any one know what the EX and FX categories mean?
employment and family
employment and family
cjagtap
07-18 02:55 PM
PD-APRIL 04
140 APPROVED- 04/07
485 APPLICATION REACHED TSC-07-02
NO REJECTION YET OR NO RECEIPT NOTICE YET.
CHECKED CASHED -NOT YET
Called service center -she said they sent all the applications back but if thats the case we should have gotten it by now.
What if we dont get any receipt notice or rejected papers till the end of this month..do we have to recreate our medical sealed envelop again? what if the doc do not have anything on the computer and can not make copies?
IN ThAT CASE WE ARE SURELY GOING TO AGAIN MISS AUGUST 17TH DEADLINE,IF NOT WILL BE STRESSED FOR NEXT ENTIRE MONTH!!!
140 APPROVED- 04/07
485 APPLICATION REACHED TSC-07-02
NO REJECTION YET OR NO RECEIPT NOTICE YET.
CHECKED CASHED -NOT YET
Called service center -she said they sent all the applications back but if thats the case we should have gotten it by now.
What if we dont get any receipt notice or rejected papers till the end of this month..do we have to recreate our medical sealed envelop again? what if the doc do not have anything on the computer and can not make copies?
IN ThAT CASE WE ARE SURELY GOING TO AGAIN MISS AUGUST 17TH DEADLINE,IF NOT WILL BE STRESSED FOR NEXT ENTIRE MONTH!!!
more...
Beemar
03-30 10:05 PM
Received one today.
Weirdest thing:
Person's 140 was revoked by employer;
person received notice of intent to deny. NOID clearly stated that 140 was revoked by employer then quoted ac21 law and said beneficiary may be eligible and to give job offer letter.
person responded with letter from new ac21 employer with perfectly matching job duties/descriptions.
uscis sent denial. Denial only stated that 140 was revoked and 140 immigrant petition is needed to get greencard.
Don't know if this is a new procedure that they are following the main law where a valied 140 is needed the whole time.
More likely cause is that the letter from the applicant notifying his new job never reached/registered in CIS systems.
Did the person send the letter in time? Was there any intermediate change in status between NOID and actual denial status? This is crucial to know before jumping to conclusions.
Weirdest thing:
Person's 140 was revoked by employer;
person received notice of intent to deny. NOID clearly stated that 140 was revoked by employer then quoted ac21 law and said beneficiary may be eligible and to give job offer letter.
person responded with letter from new ac21 employer with perfectly matching job duties/descriptions.
uscis sent denial. Denial only stated that 140 was revoked and 140 immigrant petition is needed to get greencard.
Don't know if this is a new procedure that they are following the main law where a valied 140 is needed the whole time.
More likely cause is that the letter from the applicant notifying his new job never reached/registered in CIS systems.
Did the person send the letter in time? Was there any intermediate change in status between NOID and actual denial status? This is crucial to know before jumping to conclusions.
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Green.Tech
06-19 06:13 PM
Please don't be. I am glad that I finally got a response!!
Thanks willwin.
Keep the phone lines ringing, folks!
Thanks willwin.
Keep the phone lines ringing, folks!
more...
smsthss
09-17 11:27 AM
anything on c-span???
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WeShallOvercome
07-18 05:57 PM
I have stayed long enough in United States to say that this Rep is lying.
No mail can take 4 weeks to reach.:eek:
At the most a week but reasonable it will be 3 days.
--sri
May be they are sending the rejected packets to the applicants' overseas address :D
No mail can take 4 weeks to reach.:eek:
At the most a week but reasonable it will be 3 days.
--sri
May be they are sending the rejected packets to the applicants' overseas address :D
more...
thakurrajiv
07-30 12:02 PM
You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.
The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.
So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.
Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is �delta� units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)
If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.
This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the �Alpha�. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:
E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon
Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
alphais the excess return
betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
epsalonis error term or un explained return.
(Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)
This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.
And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.
Best of luck!!
Again a great post. Just want to comment that be careful with ETF's too. Most of the ETF's are not physical commodity holders. They play in futures and OTC swap markets.
I have looked hard to find ETF's or MF's fwhich are pure commodity holders e.g gold, silver etc.I still have not found good ones. The closest I could get was some portfolio of mix of real assets and futures. Most of the ETFs are again leveraged and kind of trap for average investors.
There are a few hedge funds or big funds which might offer pure plays but those tend to have huge entry investment requirement basically making them inaccessible to individual small investors.
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indianindian2006
12-09 10:21 AM
Can somebody please explain what does LUD stand for ? Thanks in advance.
lud--last updated date
lud--last updated date
more...
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Illegalx17
06-21 01:38 AM
Well, i saw it ended tonight so i crapped this out in 20 seconds. I don't think i'm gonna win, but i had fun i guess. First battle i've tried on Kirupa. Toyed around with colors a bit, enjoy!
http://img298.echo.cx/img298/6913/untitled16wp.jpg
http://img298.echo.cx/img298/6913/untitled16wp.jpg
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raj1998
04-16 10:50 PM
You should not have gotton H1B visa in the first place
what makes you say so ?
, as H1b visas are for professionals
its not only for IT professionals with Eng Degree
and there are many professionals stuggle to get an h1b visas even after engineering degrees. In your case, IGNOU is a shame. Its worse than University of Pheonix. Pheonix is one of the best available uni for long distance learning.
If you get a greencard in EB2, it will be a biggest mockery of the USCIS and department of labor.
Dont know what do you mean, as long as application is legal, confirming to law, it is as good as any other EB2 application.
Please dont pass judgements and refrain from spreading wrong information as factual statments. only suggestions should be welcome.
what makes you say so ?
, as H1b visas are for professionals
its not only for IT professionals with Eng Degree
and there are many professionals stuggle to get an h1b visas even after engineering degrees. In your case, IGNOU is a shame. Its worse than University of Pheonix. Pheonix is one of the best available uni for long distance learning.
If you get a greencard in EB2, it will be a biggest mockery of the USCIS and department of labor.
Dont know what do you mean, as long as application is legal, confirming to law, it is as good as any other EB2 application.
Please dont pass judgements and refrain from spreading wrong information as factual statments. only suggestions should be welcome.
more...
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nviren
04-12 01:44 PM
My second contribution of $100 is in the mail and on the way.
Thanks,
Thanks,
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zhongweizhu
04-26 01:33 PM
just fire up $300
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gccovet
12-11 04:02 PM
Done, added my story as well.
-GCCovet
-GCCovet
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nefrateedi
07-20 09:50 AM
i did the same, because i thought that what my lawyer wanted.
The only way to track tme money order is after 60 day from bying it. You can go to the post office and they will invistigated. it cost 5 dollars. They wont do it before 60 days. i went and asked.
That is true. It's a lot easier to track Western Union money orders as opposed to those that are issued by USPS.
The only way to track tme money order is after 60 day from bying it. You can go to the post office and they will invistigated. it cost 5 dollars. They wont do it before 60 days. i went and asked.
That is true. It's a lot easier to track Western Union money orders as opposed to those that are issued by USPS.
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nviren
04-12 01:44 PM
My second contribution of $100 is in the mail and on the way.
Thanks,
Thanks,
PDOCT05
07-18 09:58 AM
DateDelivered:Jul 3rd
TimeDelivered:9:22Am
Center:NSC
Status:None
TimeDelivered:9:22Am
Center:NSC
Status:None
coopheal
01-09 10:16 PM
...
DO a rally and I will be there with contributions, do something big, I am sure more like will join the cause. Not a free rider but at the same time don't like to be taken for a free ride!
...
Make monthly monetary contribution for IV as a start.......
DO a rally and I will be there with contributions, do something big, I am sure more like will join the cause. Not a free rider but at the same time don't like to be taken for a free ride!
...
Make monthly monetary contribution for IV as a start.......
